Top 5 Projected NBA Trade Candidates This Season, By Percentage Likelihood to Get Dealt

December 05, 2025 , , ,


All the buzz around the NBA these days is about Giannis Antetokounmpo, and his potential impending trade from Milwaukee. Talk picked up this week after it was revealed that he would be sitting down with the team to discuss his future. And it was one specific incident that triggered him to ask for a trade to the New York Knicks before the season.

But is the Greek Freak the most likely star player to be dealt this season? Not according to Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. They list one player above Giannis as most likely to be traded, and the two of them top the list:

Jonathan Kuminga: 82% chance of a trade, per Polymarket 

The Golden State Warriors' Jonathan Kuminga has had his name on the rumor mill far more than Giannis going back to the offseason. His acceptance of a two-year deal as an RFA just before training camp did nothing to quell the trade talk. In fact, it pretty much cemented it in stone. One report has it as a certainty that Kuminga will be dealt the very day he is eligible, January 15th. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo: 76% chance of a trade

Polymarket lists Giannis second, with a pretty high probability of a trade. We looked at one proposed deal that would team him up with Luka Doncic on the Lakers. 

Domantas Sabonis: 72% chance of a trade

With other high-profile Sacramento Kings teammates also on the block, like Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, Sabonis leads the pack in Sacramento, as he has a much more robust trade market. 

LaMelo Ball: 54% chance of a trade

'Melo made it clear earlier this season that he wants out of Charlotte after all the years of losing. But all his years of being unavailable to play, however, do cloud his market. He's only played more than 47 games in a full season once since 2021-22. 

Ja Morant: 48% chance of a trade

Somehow, despite all the turmoil between Morant and his coach, not to mention the rest of the organization and its fans, Morant is less than 50-50 to be dealt. But that could be because rival teams are quite wary of taking on the attitude that the star guard brings, both on and off the court. He's already had two suspensions in his career for gun-related incidents, and another one this year for a clash with his coach.

Anthony Davis only has a 27% chance of being traded, per Polymarket

For those of you wondering where Anthony Davis is on this list, he comes at 7th, with only a 27% chance of being traded, per Polymarket. But again, much like the previous two on this list, that could be a function of a tepid market, as AD has a very difficult time staying on the floor, and still has two more seasons and about $150 million owed him on his contract. 

Photo: © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Go To: NFL Rumors | MLB Rumors | NHL Rumors